User blog:Bobnekaro/Hurricane Season Ends, Time to start looking into 2016
Hey guys! Today is November 30th, which is the final day of North Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. However, this does not guarantee that we will not get another storm this year, especially in the Pacific. But I think that the seasons are likely over. I think it's time to start looking forward to the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and its possibilities. Right now we are in the midst of a Very Strong El Nino, but this should start to deteriorate by June. After June, there's some uncertainty about whether we will enter a La Nina or neutral conditions. Although a La Nina is commonly associated with an active Atlantic, that is not always the case, nor does a neutral season mean that we will have a near average season. Post El Nino seasons, regardless of whether a La Nina develops or not, tend to be active. Recent post El Nino seasons include 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010. All of these seasons include at least 15 named storms, and three of them contain at least one category 5 hurricane. The 2005 season, which followed an El Nino, wasn't a La Nina and was the most active known Atlantic hurricane season. 2003 was also very active and didn't have a La Nina either. There's still some debate about whether we are in a cold-phase AMO or warm-phase AMO. I personally believe we are still in a warm AMO because Atlantic water temperatures are well above average and despite the super El Nino, the 2015 Atlantic season wasn't that far off from normal. In addition, AMO phases tend to last more than 20 years. The main factor in determining the 2016 Atlantic season's activity hinges on the Saharan Air Layer. Its presence in 2013 really caused Cape Verde-type storms to dry up. However, had the layer not been there, 2013 could have been as active as 2010-2012. 2016 has potential to be hyperactive if all the conditions are right in the Atlantic. However, it also has a chance to be near normal. My hypothetical prediction included 22 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, which would be the second most active season on record. This isn't the most accurate prediction I can think of, however: I would say 12-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes sounds like a good estimate. We will likely get an idea about the season in March or so, although the TSR should release their prediction within the next couple of weeks. A late start is likely, but that doesn't mean that the season will be inactive. Due to the El Nino slowly fading away, it is likely that we won't see a storm until late July or so. But 1998, a year after the last Very Strong El Nino, was like this and ended up being classified as "hyperactive" by its ACE in the end, including a Category 5 hurricane. Happy Hurricane Offseason! Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 02:18, December 1, 2015 (UTC) Category:Blog posts